OPEC’s monthly report shows 2022 oil demand to rise by 3.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 3.2%, down 260,000 bpd – including the trend of using oil in power generation – from the previous forecast of 3.4 mb/d. Meanwhile, the IEA raised its forecast by 380,000 bpd to 2.1 mb/d.
Oil demand in the OECD is estimated to grow by 1.6 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by 1.5 mb/d. Total oil demand is expected to average around 100 mb/d in 2022.
Oil demand in 2H22 is revised lower, amid expectations of a resurgence of COVID-19 restrictions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. For 2023, the forecast for world oil demand growth remains unchanged at 2.7 mb/d, with total oil demand averaging 102.7 mb/d. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.6 mb/d and the non-OECD by 2.1 mb/d.
Oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by a still-solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as improving geopolitical developments and the improvement of COVID-19 in all regions.
Global Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 2.1 mb/d to average 65.8 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous assessment. An upward revision to Russia is offset by downward revisions to the US, Norway and Kazakhstan. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil, China and Guyana, while production is expected to decline mainly in Indonesia and Thailand.
In 2023, growth in non-OPEC liquids production remains unchanged at 1.7 mb/d to average 67.5 mb/d. The main drivers for growth in 2023 are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada and Guyana. However, uncertainty regarding the operational and financial aspects of US production, as well as the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remains high. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in July increased by 216 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.90 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
OPEC revised downward the world economic growth to stand at 3.1% for 2022 and 2023, citing a weaker 2Q22 growth in the major economies and an observed soft trend in some key economies.
